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Week 5 NFL Picks

Football fans, Good morning.

After finishing a 13.1 mile run, and placing my Vegas bets for today, I am ready to share with you my insight.

INDY over Chiefs

Colts have shown now 3 weeks in a row that they are not nearly as bad as that team that lined up against the Texans back in Week 1. Painter gets it done, and maybe even completes half of his passes and the Chiefs winning streak stops at 1. Colts: 21-13

VIKINGS over Cardinals

McNabb will not finish this year as the starter, heck he may not even make it into week 8 as the starter. But his team could also easily be 4-0 if it weren’t for late game collapses. Kolb throws a couple of TDs, but cannot secure victory. Vikings: 28-21

PHILLY over Bills

What better game to magnify America’s love for building people and teams up, and then slowly tearing them down, only to build them back up again, in hopes of then tearing them down. The Bills and Lions have gotten most of the hype the past few weeks. Humane Society donor Michael Vick and the Eagles were much of the story in pre-season. I doubt both of these teams make the playoffs, but I am not ready to admit that the Eagles are this bad of a team yet. Eagles: 31-28

TEXANS over Raiders

A sad day in Oakland. The Raiders will definitely come out swinging, hoping to punch the Texas boys in their mouths. But as the end of the day, Schaub and Co. will use that potent offense and manimalistic defense to cause a little more sting to a cloudy weekend thus far in Oakland. RIP Al Davis. Texans: 34-31

SAINTS over Carolina

Yes we know Cam Newton can throw the ball, and yes we know his defense stinks. Guess who else can throw the ball and has a good defense? Saints: 34-14

CINCY over Jags

One of the biggest surprises this year to me is the play of Andy Dalton and his badass Bengals. That team plays tough, and if you asked me right now whom I would take between Dalton, Colt McCoy, and Jimmy Clausen, I would absolutely take the red haired wonder. Name a player on the Jags that isn’t Gabbert or MJD. Bengals: 21-17

TITANS over Steelers

Week in and week out I say how old the Steelers D is, and in my 10 team fantasy league, Fondlesberger is still a free agent. They simply aren’t the team they once were. Hats off to Hasslebeck for a Kurt Warner like resurgence. Titans: 31-24

NYG over Seahawks

This pick was simple. The game is being played in the Meadowlands, now Seattle. That’s about all I needed to know. T-Jack, not a competent QB. Eli, excellent QB. Giants: 31-13

TAMPA over 49ers

This was a tough pick for sure. I like Alex Smith and I think football is more interesting when a team so rich in tradition like San Fran is playing well. But, I’m not ready to throw in the towel on the Bucs like I have done every year after the Mike Alstott era. It’s a close one. Tampa Bay: 26-24

PATRIOTS over Jets

The Jets are just going to have to ride this suck stick for a little while longer. Patriots are not the dominating team I thought they were going to be this year, but they are still very good. Look for ground and pound from Rex Ryan, and hope they don’t get behind and have to rely on the Sanchize. Pats: 31-21

CHARGERS over Broncos

I hate to do this one, considering I grew up and still am a huge Broncs fan, but Orton just doesn’t “do it” for me. Philip “cry me a” Rivers is an amazing talent, just not on a consistent team. Look for my boy Mike Tolbert to step it up. Chargers: 31-14

PACKERS over ATL

What we thought pre-season would be a close hard fought battle, may turn out to be another, look how awesome the Packers are, type game. I still stand by my statement that they will not win 14 games, but isn’t it crazy to think that ATL won 14 games last year? Packers: 38-28

BEARS over Lions

I know I know, not a popular pick. However, has anyone noticed how the Lions have to like pull out every game at the last second? That doesn’t make me feel good. I have Megatron on my fantasy team, so I want him to catch like 4 touchdowns, but if that happens, I’m going to need Jay Cutler to throw for 5 TDs. This is a game I am actually really looking forward to watch, and it should be easily one of the two best games this week. Bears: 35-31

Your “Sure Lock” pick of the week is NO over the Panthers. If you are betting straight on this one, you are going to have to bet a lot to make some money unfortunately. As I look at the schedule, this is the only game that I see no possibilities for hiccups or upsets.

The “Hindsight” pick of the week had about 3 teams vying for it, but the edge will go to the 49ers vs Bucs. I just feel that the Niners are playing with more heart than most teams, and truth of the matter is that I just don’t like or care much for the Bucs. They are so blehh. So Even tho I picked the Bucs, I’ll be kicking myself when Alex Smith fends off the blitz and leads San Fran to another victory.

Enjoy the games, while I tend to my chaffed thighs.

Miles

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Week 3 NFL Picks

Cheers Fans!

Well yours truly went 14-2 in his first week posting picks. The only losses I acquired in Week 2 were my upset pick that did not come to fruition, Broncs did in fact beat the Bengals, and the pick that few guessed right, the Titans had their way with the Ravens.

I have decided to scrap my own concoction of a spread line in favor of posting my guess at the final scores. This is a work in progress, and I will be posting only the VEGAS LINE with my own guesstimations at a final, along with my picks and witticisms of course. Because what is a prediction without banter to either cause people to curse my stupidity or reluctantly agree with my foresight?

SEASON STATS: 14-2

LAST WEEK: 14-2

PATRIOTS -8 over Bills (Brady throws for 400+ yards on a much improved Bills team. Too much hype surrounds the Bills this year so far. They beat two teams who just aren’t that good, Does anyone recall the 2008 season when Trent Edwards led the Bills to a 4-0 start? Yea, how soon we forget.) Final score: PATS 38-24

PANTHERS -2.5 over Jags (The battle of the ’90s expansion teams features a unique battle between two first round QBs from the past draft. Unfortunately for Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton has a 2 game and 800+ passing yardage head start. I’m not ready to declare Newton the heir apparent in Carolina, but I am less willing to say Gabbert wins his first NFL start. Look for Newton to surpass 300 yards passing again, complete with at least one INT.) PANTHERS 24-12

49ERS +2 over Bengals (The new look, but kinda old look, Niners played their asses off last week. Look for this to continue, despite the injuries. Michael Crabtree must be a factor for them to win. Andy Dalton continues to show promise, and once again a Bengals surprise could screw up my picks) 49ERS 24-22

BROWNS -3 over Dolphins (Most talking heads/analysts will be picking the Dolphins, with Sparano’s back against the wall, the Dolphins desperately need this game. Already back two games in their division, it is true the Phins play better on the road. However, Peyton Hillis and company usually get up for home games and will continue to win ugly) BROWNS 17-14

LIONS -3.5 over Vikings (Donovan McNabb will continue to show NFL fans that his career is all but over. The cocky and comfortable Lions are shaping up to transform themselves into the 2004-2010 Steelers 2.0. I’m uber-confident in the Lions and that feisty offense of their to win easy over the hapless, and Favreless Vikes) LIONS 31-17

SAINTS -3.5 over Texans (Mark my words, the Texans will be in the playoffs. Mark my words, the Saints will be too. Brees shows NFL fans and NOLA natives that a second Super Bowl in 3 years is a real possibility.) SAINTS 28-26

EAGLES -7.5 over Giants (A few things you should know about me, I think Mike Vick has been the most overrated player in the NFL the past 10 years. I think Eli Manning is one of the most underrated of the last 10 years. I think though that the Eagles have a better team than the Giants and that will be the difference. Look for Vick to get his bell rung again. I hope the Giants win, but statistics say they won’t.) EAGLES 31-24

TITANS -6.5 over Broncos (The Broncos might be the most frustrating team in the NFL this year. On paper it seems to be all there. However, this team just finds ways to lose games. They become non-existent at times on the field, and other times look amazing. I’m betting on the Titans to continue where they left off last week, and shock a few more people.) Titans 31-27

JETS -3.5 over Raiders (For some reason, the Raiders are a hot pick over at ProFootballTalk. Despite a strong showing in last years regular season, the Raiders are still finding their solid ground. The Sanchize and big daddy Rex don’t win pretty, but they win. And that’s all that matters when you are picking games.) JETS 21-20

CHARGERS -13 over Chiefs (Todd Haley, you are the weakest link, goodbye. The Weissless Chiefs offense has mustered 10 points this season, while their defense has allowed 89. A playoff bound Chargers team led by All-World QB and All-World Grumpy Face Phillip Rivers will roll.) CHARGERS 42-21

RAVENS -4 over Rams (Sam Bradford will be an All Pro in due time, however, without weapons and an injured team surrounding him, it will take more time than this season to accomplish that. Look for a nasty Baltimore team to bounce back and cause even more injuries. With the NFL’s most dangerous defender – both on the field and off – Ray Lewis, the Ravens win easy) RAVENS 24-14

PACKERS -3.5 over Bears (This was a tough one. The Pack will not be going 15-1 or even 14-2 this year, so they are bound to lose sometime. And if a game looks like trouble, it is the unpredictable Bears in Chicago. But I can’t doubt Aaron Rodgers’ ability to execute a flawless game plan yet.) PACK 35-28

CARDINALS -1.5 over Seahawks (Pete Carroll needs lots of things this year in Seattle. First and foremost, he needs a QB. Tavaris Jackson is not a capable QB. I am mystified by this lovefest with Jackson. Not even the great Joey Harrington got as many chances at redemption as the weaker Jackson. Kevin Kolb will show the Seahawks brass what they could have had, adding to lingering dissent in Seattle.) CARDS 31-21

FALCONS +1 over Buccaneers (If this plays out like a normal Flacons vs Bucs game we have grown accustomed to over the past couple of years, we are in for a treat. Matty Ice is talented and clutch, and will be facing off against a talented QB in Josh Freeman. The Bucs will fight hard, but that 4th quarter ATL team will pull one out. The Bucs will be the popular pick though.) ATL 24-21

STEELERS -10 over Colts (Really? Do I need to comment on this game? The aging Steelers are still too  much for a maligned Colts team. Indy will win games this year, just not this one) STEELERS 28-21

REDSKINS +6 over Dallas (Romo showed amazing guts last week in the Boys’ come from behind win that saved me from losing serious money. However, the major issues to the receiving and running back corps will have a direct impact on his ability to move the ball in the redzone. Look for Jason Witten to have big numbers, and with a home team crowd, the Boys will be tough to beat. But Rex Grossman’s alter ego, Good Rex, has been making the plays the Skins need this season, and he continues this week) SKINS 28-24

The “SURE LOCK” pick of the week is never any fun if I pick an obvious one everyone else will be betting on. It’s easy to just pick who will win, but who is going to 100% not lose you any money is the important part. Initially I felt that the Steelers would be a wise pick, but I am an INDY homer, and root for them every week, so I would hate to see them cost me money. Therefore I’m going to ride the Brady Bandwagon and pick the PATRIOTS to definitely beat the BILLS by more than a score and 2 pt conversion. It’s a bit of a gamble for this reason:

2010

Patriots over Bills 38-30

Patriots over Bills 34-3

2009

Patriots over Bills 25-24

Patriots over Bills 17-10

2008

Patriots over Bills 20-10

Patriots over Bills 13-0

Save for one meeting in 2010, the Bills actually match up well against the Patriots. And they are playing very good football so far this year as well. However, the Patriots are playing super football this year. And I expect Brady to continue his dominance.

The “UPSET LOCK” of the week of course is my REDSKINS over COWBOYS pick. I could have gambled less and gone with the 49ers over the Bengals, but this game will be more exciting, plus the spread deficit is greater. Call me a Grossman homer (I do own his jersey, along with my Harrington, and Max Hall jerseys) and there’s the fact I think quite highly of the Cowboys and Romo, but isn’t it fun to ride this Redskins return to glory momentum? If the Boys had a healthy Bryant, Austin, and Jones it would be a no brainer pick in their favor. They don’t though, and that is why I’m going with the Skins.

The “HINDSIGHT IS 20/20” pick of the week is once again, the pick that I feel smart about now, but then when I’m proven wrong I kick myself hard for being that stupid. Last week I thought that the Eagles could be the hindsight pick, and amazingly, the Falcons pulled off an unlikely comeback and kept what looked like a very real hindsight pick from coming to fruition. This week’s pick is the Packers vs BEARS. Like I said before, the Packers will lose this year, 12-13 wins is what I’m predicting, so a loss has to come sometime. Cutler under Mike Martz’s offense is scary. And plus no one likes to play at Soldier Field. Therefore I’ll be kicking myself extra hard for picking the Packers if the Bears pull out a nice little victory that wouldn’t really count as an upset.

Miles Johnson

Week 2 NFL Picks

Welcome Fans,

I’ve included my own calculations for a spread vs. studying the official lines… (I highly advise you to check the official Vegas lines before you place your own bets. My math and estimations are at best, educated guesses and cynicism.)

Bills -5 over Raiders (Not sold on Fitzpatrick, but not sold on Campbell even more so)
Pack -11 over Panthers (Cam Newton doesn’t throw for 300, and meets Dom Capers)
Lions -10 over Chiefs (10 win Lions team is here, Todd Haley is on hot seat)
Browns -2 over Colts (Colts find their sea legs, in the 4th quarter)
Bucs -2 over Vikings (McNabb breaks 100 yrds, and loses…again)
Saints -3 over Bears (Brees shows Martz what a good Offense can do)
Jets -4 over Jags (Sanchize fights it out over a dangerous Jags team)
Steelers -13 over Seahawks (Aging defense won’t matter against Pete Carroll)
Ravens -10 over Titans (This one could get nasty)
Redskins -3 over Cardinals (If Kollb throws for 300+ yards, Skins lose)
Cowboys -8 over 49ers (Romo special)
Bengals -2 over Broncos (Upset special)
Texans -2 over Dolphins (Fins are good, but this is Texans year)
Pats -7 over Bolts (Future AFC championship game)
Falcons -2 over Philly (Vick is unpredictable, Ryan isn’t)
G-Men -3 over Rams (Eli’s game to silence the critics)

16 games total, many of my picks break from spread line, as I’ve created my own line.

I include one “SURE LOCK” pick, and that is Cowboys over 49ers, Vegas holds it at Cowboys -3, however I feel this will be the same Cowboys team you saw last week… except against a much lesser team. Therefore the -3 spread to me is too low. Tony Romo  has historically showcased his dominance and skills when facing lesser talent in his NFL career. We have all heard the saying that, “you only play as well as the team you play against.” Tony Romo’s career statistics back that saying up…

2009/10:     Teams W/winning % – 15-10
Teams W/losing% – 21-5
2008:          Teams W/winning% – 16-14
Teams W/losing% – 22-8
2007:          Teams W/winning% -15-11
TeamsW/losing% – 22-8

Overall: Tony Romo vs Losing %: .756
Tony Romo vs. Winning % .568

The “UPSET LOCK” of the week will be the Bengals over the Broncos. Denver has a 300 yd passer in Kyle Orton, but as the NFL has shown us over and over again, high passing yards with no running game and a weak defense usually alludes to a 6-10 record and a QB with a sub 85.0 rating. The Bengals aren’t very good, having barely beating a timid Browns team. However, they moved the ball well with a young Dalton and excelled under a Pennington-like passer with the scrambling skills of a poor man’s Steve Young. Bruce Gradkowski may not be the starter tomorrow, but he has done enough already to energize this sleeping giant of an offense. Remember the miracle at Mile High in 2009, the catch that ended Josh McDaniels’ Broncos Career.

The “HINDSIGHT IS 20/20 LOCK?” pick of the week was a tough one. It could have come down to the Kolb led Cards, Sparano’s fleeting Fins, Hothead Haley’s underachieving Chief’s, or Ryan’s riddling Falcons. Sure, the Cards/Skins game would be an easy one for me to wish I had a do-over, due to the Good Rex/Bad Rex factor that haunted the 2006 Bears, But I settled on a high profile game for that award. Here me now, I may tell you that the FALCONS will win by a field goal or more, but if they come out at the same speed that has plagued them the past 5 weeks, it will be a sweet victory for Vick, and an unsavory defeat for anyone who wishes to see him fail.

Miles Johnson

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